APRLOG / Tools / Lock-up opportunity cost table
Lock-up opportunity cost table
This page is pure arithmetic containing no platform data, so it does not go out of date. The formula is printed below and you can verify it yourself.
What this page is: an answer to one question — if I lock up for this long at this rate, how far does the price have to fall before the yield is cancelled out? It is a lookup table, not a precision instrument. Find your lock-up on the left, your rate along the top, read the intersection.
| Lock-up | 2% APR | 4% APR | 6% APR | 8% APR | 12% APR | 20% APR | 50% APR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.23% | 0.38% | 0.95% |
| 14 days | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.23% | 0.31% | 0.46% | 0.76% | 1.88% |
| 30 days | 0.16% | 0.33% | 0.49% | 0.65% | 0.98% | 1.62% | 3.95% |
| 60 days | 0.33% | 0.65% | 0.98% | 1.30% | 1.93% | 3.18% | 7.59% |
| 90 days | 0.49% | 0.98% | 1.46% | 1.93% | 2.87% | 4.70% | 10.98% |
| 180 days | 0.98% | 1.93% | 2.87% | 3.80% | 5.59% | 8.98% | 19.78% |
| 365 days | 1.96% | 3.85% | 5.66% | 7.41% | 10.71% | 16.67% | 33.33% |
Each cell is the price fall that exactly offsets the interest earned over that period. Formula: period return r = APR × days ÷ 365; break-even fall = r ÷ (1 + r). Pure arithmetic, tied to no product.
How to use it
- Find the row for the lock-up you are considering.
- Find the column for the product's rate — use your realistic expectation, not the headline.
- Read the intersection.
- Then ask the real question: over this period, is a fall of that size a likely event for this asset?
Step four is the whole point. The table produces the number; only you can judge whether that number is plausible, and that depends entirely on what you are locking.
What the table shows
Read along a row and short lock-ups have almost no margin for error. Seven days at 8% is offset by a 0.15% fall — and 0.15% is not a move, it is noise.
Read down a column and time is what actually accumulates interest. At the same 8%, a 365-day lock-up has roughly fifty times the tolerance of a seven-day one.
Together: over short horizons, savings yield is negligible against price movement. Its purpose is to stop idle money sitting completely still, not to offset market risk.
Why this is not an input form
A calculator with input boxes creates a feeling of precision, when the uncertain parts here are never the arithmetic — they are whether your rate estimate is right and whether the asset will actually fall that far. A calculator helps with neither.
A lookup table has the advantage of showing you the whole surface at once. You notice the neighbouring cells, and that impression is more useful than a single precise answer.
What the table ignores
- Fees. Include them and the break-even fall shrinks further; see where fees eat the yield.
- The reward asset. If the yield is not paid in the deposited asset, add a conversion layer — which coin the yield is paid in.
- Early exit. The table assumes you hold to maturity; leaving early costs separately.
- Unit of account. The whole table is fiat-denominated. If you think in coin terms it means something quite different — see the price fell while your coins were locked.